what the 3am earnings call actually priced in

Nvidia reported after the bell and the stock moved four percent before the call even started, entirely on a leaked line from a supplier note. By the time management said a word, the market had already decided what mattered.

The rest of the call — guidance, margins, the analyst Q&A — moved the stock about half a percent, combined. there’s more, if you care →

The interesting question isn’t whether the market is efficient. It’s whether the market prices in information or prices in narratives about information. The supplier note wasn’t more accurate than the earnings report. It was earlier. And in a market built on speed, earlier wins even when it’s wrong.